The Map Meta in 2017 part 3 – Teams and Trends

In the penultimate part of this short series looking at maps in 2017 I’m looking at team trends in maps played. I’ll be looking at the top rates teams in our Glicko world rankings which includes the top NA team Cloud9, and also taking a detour to see what Virtus Pro have been up to.

There are some difficulties in separating interesting data from the mass when examining these trends. It tends to produce spaghetti line graphs which obscure trends.

After kicking the data around for a while I settled on an analysis method that allowed for clear representation of the map usage by teams and the identification of some more interesting trends or changes over the course of the year. Continue reading “The Map Meta in 2017 part 3 – Teams and Trends”

The Map Meta in 2017 part 2

Last time out we looked at some basic map pick rates data and made some observations about popularity, how maps have displaced each other in the pool and what that might mean for the upcoming reintroduction of Dust 2 into the rotation.

Now we’re going to look at some teams, and as the sample sizes here get very small one of the themes is going to be uncertainty and confidence. If you’ve ever wondered how the hell standard deviation will ever be relevant to your life, here it is.

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The Map Meta in 2017 part 1

Following our look at how buying patterns of weapons have changed over the course of the season, this is a review of how map choices have developed. All data is taken from events that we took detailed statistics from which are all lan tournaments of high level teams.

We can start with a very basic graph of the share of map picks from lan tournaments we’ve covered.

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Predicting the Eleague Major: Boston 2018, a 1 million iteration Monte Carlo simulation

Now TyLoo have dropped out of the Tournament the tournament probabilities have been recalculated here Not much has changed so the writeup below is still relevant. Consider exchanging any mentions of TyLoo with Flash Gaming as our algorithm has them very evenly matched

For those of you unfamiliar with the process for these predictions, I use’s unique Glicko team rankings to seed a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming tournament, then run a million simulations of the tournament and collect the finishing places of each team and how often they finished in them. From this we can then build a picture of the most likely performances of teams in the tournament.

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Meta Changes in 2017 – Weapons

The Counter Strike meta is a constantly evolving landscape, sometimes gently prodded by Valve doing their best to prove the virtues of intelligent design, sometimes wiped out in a mass extinction event. 2017 has been no exception with sudden and gradual changes alike.

Starting this review I’ll look at one of the latter, the slow death of the M4A1-S rifle. Whether to pick the M4A4 or M4A1 used to be a favourite forum debate, but at the top level at least the debate is largely over.

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The biggest plays from ECS Season 4 finals

Using’s unique win percentage model we have identified the most impactful plays of the tournament in terms of swinging the round and game in one or other team’s favour. These aren’t about conventional crazy skill, they are about big moments that changed the direction of the game as a whole.

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8 things we learned from ECS Season 4 Finals

1. This was a very CT sided tournament
The ECS finals were an oddly CT sided affair. Only 2 teams broke 50% round win rates on their T side in Astralis and mousesports. Even FaZe Clan only managed 44.4% win rate on the T side on their way to taking the title. One of the reasons for this may have been the unexpected amount of Nuke in the maps played, which is generally a CT-sided map. Only Train and Mirage were played more often, and Cache was ignored completely.

Everything about the T side suffered, bomb plant rates were generally well below average except for FaZe, Astralis and mousesports but conversion rates from plant to round win were below global averages for every team in the tournament. On the flipside of that retake rates were great with 5 out of 8 teams posting above average numbers, with Fnatic nearly 15% over average.

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Pistol rounds: The myth of the 3 free rounds

It’s often considered a truism in CS that winning a pistol round is like winning 3 free rounds as the winner gets to start building up their equipment while the loser has to eco until they can make their own buy. The problem is that we know instinctively that it’s not really true, we see top teams reverse the advantage of the pistol rounds on a regular basis, and not just by hitting a round of improbably headshots.

Before going into the method of how pistol rounds can be reversed, what are the actual stats?

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Predicting the winner of ECS Season 4 Finals

Using the CSGO world rankings system we ran a one million iteration Monte Carlo simulation of the Esports Championship Series 4 Finals. This is what we found out.

Firstly the groups look very one sided. In Group A there’s only one team rated over 2400 in mousesports. In group B 3 teams are over 2400, with FaZe over 2500 rating points. Liquid at 2305 is the weakest in group B, but they’re still rated above both Luminosity Gaming and OpTic in group A.

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The biggest plays from ESL Pro League Season 6 Finals

Using’s Win Percentage model I’ve calculated the biggest win % value round contributions by individual players from the ESL Pro League Season 6 Finals. These aren’t always the biggest names, or the most spectacular or skillful plays, but the combination of their timing and impact had a dramatic effect on their team’s overall chances of winning each game.

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